Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x227d…8719 other 553 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$718 (-1%) realized −$760 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%262W / 290L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$113
14 days−$113
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$385
other 28% −$939
culture 3% +$433
politics 2% −$57
tech 1% +$49
weather 0% −$41
economics 0% −$4
world 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 25% -35.4%
≤30d 12 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 42% -32.0%
≤90d 353 -31.7% -38.2% 43% 34% -14.4%
all 552 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 39% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 39% -11.1%
10% -28.4% 27% -19.6%
15% -35.4% 19% -27.4%
20% -41.7% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$30 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$760
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses262 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)552 / 553
History coverage152d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 100¢ $5 $47 +$42 (+843%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $251 −$85 -34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $91 −$34 -37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $36 +$2 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 27 $28 +$8 +27%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 25 $5 −$4 -72%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $53 −$21 -39%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $101 −$71 -70%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $10 −$7 -73%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 18 $10 +$5 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $61 +$26 +43%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5 May 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5 May 16 $20 +$6 +32%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 May 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 May 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 May 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 May 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 May 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 May 14 $5 −$3 -58%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $30 −$9 -30%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $101 −$75 -74%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$17 -84%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $30 −$9 -29%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $60 +$14 +23%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $30 +$11 +38%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $30 −$10 -32%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $80 −$3 -4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $40 +$7 +19%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $76 +$15 +20%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $166 −$41 -25%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $252 −$103 -41%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $10 −$4 -40%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 05 $101 +$21 +21%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 May 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 May 04 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $20 +$4 +21%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 03 $50 −$18 -36%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 76¢ $180 44m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $120 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $39 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $165 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $58 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $57 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $91 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $251 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $20 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $38 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $36 22h
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 78¢ $28 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 21¢ $1 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 21d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 SELL Over 46¢ $32 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 74¢ $53 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 23¢ $30 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 19¢ $3 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 27d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 28d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 30d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.15 · official $22.62 · 1599 history records