Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x227e…c78a sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-26%) realized −$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$35
14 days+$15
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$196
sports 41% +$21
crypto 5% −$17
world 4% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +35.8% +22.9% 54% 54% +4.3%
≤30d 15 +17.7% +6.5% 47% 47% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +3.8% -6.0% 41% 41% -14.2%
all 51 -22.8% -30.2% 41% 35% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 35% -36.2%
10% -36.8% 33% -42.3%
15% -42.9% 29% -47.9%
20% -48.5% 20% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage226d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$19 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +473%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 22 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 22 $20 −$7 -36%
Dallas Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Ben Shelton Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Karolina Muchova vs Anna Kalinskaya Feb 12 $10 +$6 +64%
Dallas Open: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Feb 12 $20 +$12 +62%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P Feb 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 11 $10 +$4 +37%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs K27 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualif Feb 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Pla Feb 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 10 $10 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $15 +$8 +56%
Valorant: Galatasaray Esports vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Feb 09 $1 $0 +23%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 09 $1 $0 +5%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $22 +$10 +47%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 08 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Senators vs. Penguins Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship? Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Yale Bulldogs vs. Brown Bears Jan 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship? Dec 27 $22 −$18 -80%
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championshi Dec 26 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Dec 26 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Canada win on 2025-11-18? Nov 19 $10 +$11 +113%
Will New Zealand win on 2025-11-18? Nov 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Speed Chess QF: Carlsen vs Caruana Nov 19 $16 +$1 +9%
Speed Chess QF: Firouzja vs Nepomniachtchi Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So Nov 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 9h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 9h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 32h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $36 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 18d
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 80d
Will Canada win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 81d
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? BUY No 93¢ $10 110d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 112d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 54¢ $15 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $21 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 115d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 54¢ $20 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.67 · official $1.67 (match) · 92 history records