Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2281…06fd crypto 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-5%) realized −$173 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%96W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$402
14 days−$518
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$486
world 4% −$10
other 2% −$64
politics 1% −$13
sports 1% +$59
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 237 -15.2% -23.3% 28% 26% -25.2%
≤30d 327 -21.3% -28.8% 29% 28% -26.7%
≤90d 327 -21.3% -28.8% 29% 28% -26.7%
all 327 -21.3% -28.8% 29% 28% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 28% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 24% -33.7%
15% -41.8% 23% -40.1%
20% -47.5% 20% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses96 / 231
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions27
Markets (closed)327 / 354
History coverage13d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 31¢ 25¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 26¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+179%)
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UFC 250? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+170%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 34¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+165%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 38¢ 64¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 35¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? No 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 57¢ 39¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? No 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 27¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 226 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$16 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$13 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$12 +1196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.64 · official $48.57 (match) · 1090 history records