Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
22 0x2282…73e8 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,276 (+13%) realized +$3,438 · open +$838
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$721per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$8,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,858
14 days+$2,610
30 days+$2,399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$794
politics 30% +$3,727
other 18% +$1,069
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% −$158
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.9% +34.7% 67% 67% +61.7%
≤30d 26 +9.8% -0.6% 69% 38% +5.2%
≤90d 34 +13.3% +2.5% 68% 41% +4.9%
all 34 +13.3% +2.5% 68% 41% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 41% +4.9%
10% -7.3% 29% -5.1%
15% -16.3% 26% -14.3%
20% -24.5% 21% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$209 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$8,435
Realized+$3,438
Unrealized+$838
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)34 / 45
History coverage82d
Avg bet$721
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 98¢ $2,035 $2,550 +$515 (+25%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 74¢ 91¢ $1,630 $2,006 +$377 (+23%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $1,087 $1,193 +$106 (+10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 78¢ 66¢ $859 $718 −$142 (-16%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 83¢ 86¢ $498 $519 +$21 (+4%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 91¢ 88¢ $454 $442 −$12 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 87¢ 86¢ $400 $393 −$7 (-2%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 64¢ $355 $318 −$37 (-11%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 56¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 39¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $1,764 +$1,806 +102%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 23 $1,466 +$1,203 +82%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $401 −$151 -38%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 19 $500 −$40 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $458 +$242 +53%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $512 +$287 +56%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $813 +$421 +52%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 15 $400 +$26 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,001 −$971 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $907 −$229 -25%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 14 $201 +$15 +8%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 13 $49 +$46 +95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $1,003 +$76 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $504 −$124 -25%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $204 +$13 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 09 $407 +$23 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $104 +$10 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $501 +$95 +19%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $256 −$158 -62%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $301 +$66 +22%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 04 $1,013 −$14 -1%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 02 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 02 $201 +$46 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $100 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $1,951 −$274 -14%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $200 −$24 -12%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 17 $103 +$39 +38%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 16 $412 +$557 +135%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $102 −$6 -5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $592 +$235 +40%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $599 +$71 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 87¢ $400 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $92 2h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $266 2h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $8 8h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 91¢ $455 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1,940 45h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $228 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $1,696 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $187 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $623 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $287 2d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 83¢ $281 3d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 83¢ $218 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 78¢ $359 3d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $284 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 79¢ $508 3d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $137 3d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $80 3d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 99¢ $291 3d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 99¢ $1,986 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 99¢ $379 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 99¢ $78 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 99¢ $1,980 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 99¢ $4 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 100¢ $199 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,434.64 · official $8,438.00 (match) · 403 history records