Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x2284…e326
sports · 276 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$515 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$644 · open −$276
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$936
Realized−$644
Unrealized−$276
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses119 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions14
Markets (closed)262 / 276
History coverage22d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 14 History 262 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days−$243
14 days−$47
30 days−$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 58¢ 58¢ $600 $600 +$0 (+0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $90 $130 +$40 (+44%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 45¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 44¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Curaçao 24¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 73¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming Junior 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$51 +51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$9 -9%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$29 -57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $92 −$83 -90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$55 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $314 +$139 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$42 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $202 −$80 -40%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$101 +165%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$30 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $333 −$16 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $201 +$49 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $26 +$73 +287%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 −$50 -49%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $61 +$46 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 +$128 +126%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$63 +123%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $445 +$284 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$37 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$53 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$45 -89%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +39%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$3 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $706 +$162 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $308 −$93 -30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $505 −$131 -26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% +$1,202
crypto 32% −$2,069
other 1% −$43
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $304 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $79 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $304 19m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $51 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $50 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $61 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 24¢ $15 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 42¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 18¢ $22 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 45¢ $152 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 5¢ $7 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $106 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $281 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $172 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $41 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 43% -9.0%
≤30d 262 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 262 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 43% -10.2%
all 262 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 43% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 40% -18.8%
15% -34.8% 34% -26.7%
20% -41.2% 27% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $935.84 · official $934.32 (match) · 869 history records