Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2287…a73a politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
other 24% $0
politics 19% −$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.4%
all 38 -1.2% -10.6% 24% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage278d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $54 +$3 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $3 $0 -11%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $3 $0 +6%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September Sep 15 $31 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $46 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $47 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $48 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 7d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 96¢ $5 263d
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla SELL No 99¢ $25 263d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL Yes 1¢ $0 263d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records