Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x2289…5080
crypto · 11 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$32 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% −$25
crypto 40% −$7
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.4% -42.4% 38% 38% -59.0%
≤30d 8 -36.4% -42.4% 38% 38% -59.0%
≤90d 8 -36.4% -42.4% 38% 38% -59.0%
all 8 -36.4% -42.4% 38% 38% -59.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 38% -59.0%
10% -47.9% 38% -62.9%
15% -53.0% 38% -66.5%
20% -57.6% 38% -69.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.54 · official $22.54 (match) · 17 history records