Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x228c…f4b8 crypto 98 markets active 6d ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate83%74W / 15L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
sports 24% +$3
economics 16% $0
other 8% −$13
crypto 5% −$9
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 52 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 89 -0.8% -10.3% 83% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses74 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)89 / 98
History coverage244d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 13? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 23? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 10? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 12? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 11? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 10? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 9? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 10? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 11d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 11d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $13 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 35d
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 65d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 65d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $10 71d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 71d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $19 76d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.77 · official $59.92 (match) · 209 history records