Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2290…bdb1 other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%29W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 23% −$4
other 23% −$2
politics 23% −$2
crypto 10% −$2
economics 7% +$1
world 5% −$2
culture 5% −$3
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 51 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses29 / 208
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage168d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $36 $0 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $120 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $284 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $180 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $38 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 22 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $29 1h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $30 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 8d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $36 20d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $36 20d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $32 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $32 32d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $26 66d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $26 66d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $33 66d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 93¢ $33 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? SELL No 98¢ $28 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 98¢ $28 67d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $38 67d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $38 67d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $34 67d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $34 67d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $32 67d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $32 68d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 68d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 68d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $31 68d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $31 68d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 97¢ $27 68d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 96¢ $26 69d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $27 69d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $27 69d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 95¢ $35 70d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $36 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 839 history records