Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2291…dadd other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$22
politics 25% −$11
sports 20% −$15
crypto 6% −$6
finance 6% −$4
culture 5% −$3
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.1% -10.5% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 118 -0.5% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 137 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 122
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage100d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $767 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $44 −$2 -6%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $195 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $210 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $63 +$1 +1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $52 $0 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $54 $0 +1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $58 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $36 −$2 -6%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 04 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $57 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $54 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 25m
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 5h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $60 6h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $61 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $49 21h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $49 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $60 37h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 37h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 44h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $42 45h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $28 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $24 3d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $62 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $63 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.29 · official $50.29 (match) · 466 history records