Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

22 0x2292…7443 crypto 5 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$4 (+11%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+27.8%	+15.7%	100%	75%	+15.9%
≤30d	5	+19.6%	+8.2%	80%	60%	-0.1%
≤90d	5	+19.6%	+8.2%	80%	60%	-0.1%
all	5	+19.6%	+8.2%	80%	60%	-0.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.2%	60%	-0.1%
10%	-2.1%	40%	-9.7%
15%	-11.6%	20%	-18.4%
20%	-20.3%	20%	-26.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage7d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$1	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 10	$5	+$3	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 10	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 10	$5	+$2	+34%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Jun 04	$15	−$2	-13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	6d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	SELL Yes	69¢	$13	11d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	BUY Yes	78¢	$15	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records