Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2295…17e6 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$53 (-2%) realized +$6 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$158
14 days−$158
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$231
crypto 14% +$36
sports 7% +$73
politics 4% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +8.7% -1.7% 48% 35% -17.3%
≤30d 23 +8.7% -1.7% 48% 35% -17.3%
≤90d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 41% -14.7%
all 41 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 41% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 41% -14.7%
10% -18.4% 29% -22.9%
15% -26.3% 22% -30.3%
20% -33.5% 20% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$27 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage60d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $92 $32 −$59 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$46 -90%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$41 -80%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $113 +$26 +23%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $90 +$23 +26%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$16 -83%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $99 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 −$119 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $90 +$17 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +980%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$28 -90%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $301 −$12 -4%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $103 −$18 -17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $136 +$76 +55%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 19 $41 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 19 $10 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 19 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 18 $40 +$41 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 18 $30 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 18 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 18 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Panama leading at halftime? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $36 3h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 96¢ $139 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 77¢ $113 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $113 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $90 5h
Croatia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 99¢ $106 5h
Croatia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $99 5h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 5h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $109 5h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 81¢ $99 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $120 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $107 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $90 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.10 · official $32.10 (match) · 79 history records