Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2296…877e other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$7
politics 23% +$3
world 17% +$2
sports 16% −$2
culture 8% $0
tech 6% $0
finance 4% −$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.4%
all 60 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage278d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $22 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $37 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $29 +$9 +30%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 26 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 22 $1 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 27 $11 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA? Oct 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 25 $7 $0 -4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $12 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 24 $12 $0 -2%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Oct 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $36 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $5 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $41 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $21 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $22 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $36 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $3 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $35 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 23d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $12 179d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $13 203d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 59¢ $13 203d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 69¢ $15 206d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 90¢ $4 206d
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 206d
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 206d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 90¢ $4 206d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 90¢ $4 206d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 90¢ $4 206d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? SELL Yes 69¢ $4 206d
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 206d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $12 207d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 207d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $12 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.70 · official $36.70 (match) · 210 history records