Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2296…0f83 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$204 (-1%) realized +$155 · open −$359
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,840per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$12,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$453
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.2% +23.2% 50% 25% -11.8%
≤30d 4 +36.2% +23.2% 50% 25% -11.8%
≤90d 4 +36.2% +23.2% 50% 25% -11.8%
all 4 +36.2% +23.2% 50% 25% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.2% 25% -11.8%
10% +11.5% 25% -20.3%
15% +0.7% 25% -28.0%
20% -9.2% 25% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$107 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$12,314
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$359
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,840
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $5,620 $5,464 −$156 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4,781 $4,636 −$145 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,300 $1,329 +$29 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $900 $815 −$85 (-9%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$37 +249%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,327 +$99 +7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,701 −$193 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $76 13m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,425 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,388 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,508 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $92 29h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $961 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,120 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,599 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4,902 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5,959 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,314.20 · official $12,314.20 (match) · 21 history records