Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2298…ac49 other 2254 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,508 (-33%) realized −$920 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%200W / 1941L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day56.4pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,285
7 days−$1,050
14 days−$815
30 days−$658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$128
sports 43% +$320
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 -53.7% -58.1% 4% 4% -72.9%
≤30d 784 -0.0% -9.5% 9% 9% -36.7%
≤90d 2141 -11.0% -19.5% 9% 9% -29.3%
all 2141 -11.0% -19.5% 9% 9% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 9% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 9% -36.0%
15% -34.2% 9% -42.2%
20% -40.7% 9% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$2 · ×7.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$920
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses200 / 1941
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions7
Markets (closed)2141 / 2254
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day56.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 2141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-45%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Kings vs. Celtics Kings 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-01-30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-18? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-10? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Buffalo Bulls vs. Ohio Bobcats Buffalo Bulls 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Bucks 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Coritiba FBC vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Palermo FC vs. Spezia Calcio end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Penguins vs. Red Wings Red Wings 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will US Avellino 1912 win on 2026-04-11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-20? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Atlanta Braves 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-01-30? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-10? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Buffalo Bulls vs. Ohio Bobcats Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palermo FC vs. Spezia Calcio end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Penguins vs. Red Wings Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Avellino 1912 win on 2026-04-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bucks vs. Clippers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pyramids FC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SC Bastia vs. Grenoble Foot 38 end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Flames Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-01-24? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will USL Dunkerque win on 2026-03-21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-01-22? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Querétaro FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grenoble Foot 38 win on 2026-02-06? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-03-06? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-03-19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-03-01? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Tolima vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC vs. Pau FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-02-27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-01-18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 1¢ $1 21m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 2¢ $1 35m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 6¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 5¢ $1 1h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 1¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 7¢ $2 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 2¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 2¢ $1 1h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 3¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 5¢ $3 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 1¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 5¢ $1 2h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 67¢ $42 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 5¢ $1 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 6¢ $1 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 1¢ $1 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 5¢ $1 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 9¢ $1 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 5¢ $1 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 4¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.93 · official $6.89 · 3500 history records