Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
22 0x2299…8f6a other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 389d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$596 (-3%) realized −$596 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate80%36W / 9L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days+$275
14 days−$284
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$644
world 18% −$79
sports 14% +$198
crypto 7% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.7% -11.1% 76% 29% -7.6%
≤30d 20 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 30% -11.3%
≤90d 22 -3.2% -12.4% 77% 27% -11.2%
all 45 -3.8% -12.9% 80% 29% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 29% -11.5%
10% -21.3% 9% -20.0%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$194 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

389d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$596
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses36 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage389d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,132 +$267 +8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,282 +$184 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,257 +$30 +2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $382 −$91 -24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $286 −$212 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $737 −$428 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,339 +$127 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,573 +$82 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $940 +$63 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $392 +$72 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $331 +$61 +18%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $313 +$17 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $306 +$8 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $250 +$57 +23%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $355 +$40 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$7 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $165 +$47 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $778 −$613 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 01 $562 +$7 +1%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Mar 23 $158 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jan 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jan 15 $300 +$23 +8%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? Jul 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? Jul 02 $86 −$86 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June? Jun 30 $110 +$36 +33%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 23 $300 +$56 +19%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $417 +$62 +15%
US military action against Iran before August? Jun 22 $200 +$40 +20%
New Air Force One in 2025? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? Jun 11 $503 +$20 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday? Jun 09 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jun 08 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May? Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,666 30m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,665 30m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,466 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,466 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,282 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,282 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,252 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 34h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $74 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $72 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $286 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $285 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $308 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $309 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $676 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $730 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $729 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $609 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $581 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $586 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $467 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 43¢ $466 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $526 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $476 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $476 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $464 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records