Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x229a…0ac5 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
other 29% $0
politics 8% −$2
sports 8% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 6% -9.1%
all 50 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage303d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $43 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $62 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $30 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $18 −$1 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $8 $0 -6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $34 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 02 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 +23%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 08 $1 $0 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 +7%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Aug 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $3 $0 -11%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $45 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $45 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $43 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $13 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.15 · official $44.15 (match) · 169 history records