Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x229e…33ae crypto 1244 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-2%) realized −$392 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%679W / 565L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$174
14 days−$123
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -25.5% -32.6% 51% 51% -26.9%
≤30d 502 -3.7% -12.9% 67% 67% -14.5%
≤90d 1024 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 44% -37.1%
all 1244 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 45% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -11.8%
10% -21.7% 39% -20.2%
15% -29.3% 27% -27.9%
20% -36.2% 16% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses679 / 565
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1244 / 1244
History coverage187d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1244 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$11 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$13 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2768 history records