Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
22 0x22a2…9079 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 25% +$1
politics 13% $0
tech 5% +$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤30d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 45% 18% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 45% 18% -9.1%
all 45 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage454d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $32 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $103 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $23 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $8 −$1 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 -7%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 05 $1 $0 -8%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Starmer out before July? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +2%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 27 $11 $0 +1%
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 23 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 10? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $9 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Mar 22 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 14h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $31 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $32 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $51 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $53 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $53 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $53 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $49 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.26 · official $45.26 (match) · 147 history records