Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22a4…13e5 sports 866 markets active 1d ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,488 (-4%) realized −$2,416 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%195W / 651L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day64.8pace
Fees−$894est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$220
14 days−$590
30 days−$1,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,000
other 16% −$600
world 10% −$142
finance 9% −$208
politics 6% −$255
tech 5% −$360
weather 3% −$4
crypto 1% −$139
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -8.1% -16.9% 16% 8% -14.6%
≤30d 508 -5.9% -14.8% 22% 11% -13.3%
≤90d 846 -6.4% -15.3% 23% 12% -13.1%
all 846 -6.4% -15.3% 23% 12% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 12% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 9% -21.4%
15% -30.8% 7% -29.0%
20% -37.6% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1,206
Realized−$2,416
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses195 / 651
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$894
Open positions20
Markets (closed)846 / 866
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day64.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 846 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $169 $136 −$32 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $162 $121 −$41 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $99 $114 +$15 (+15%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $89 $111 +$22 (+25%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $99 $108 +$9 (+9%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE? No 98¢ 90¢ $98 $90 −$9 (-9%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No 86¢ 70¢ $108 $88 −$20 (-19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 79¢ 98¢ $47 $59 +$12 (+25%)
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 55¢ 46¢ $53 $44 −$8 (-16%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 86¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? No 92¢ 75¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-18%)
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-7%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 53¢ $37 $32 −$5 (-13%)
Will Marconi Perillo win the Governor of Goiás election? No 93¢ 94¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 88¢ 76¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-13%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 78¢ 73¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 75¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 53¢ 14¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $76 +$10 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $92 +$31 +33%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $141 −$33 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $46 +$17 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $38 +$10 +26%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 17 $76 −$35 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $13 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? Jun 17 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 $0 -2%
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Pete Hegseth attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 17 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 94¢ $75 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $64 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 42¢ $33 36h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 46¢ $11 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 73¢ $21 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 74¢ $13 43h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? SELL No 60¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $8 43h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 74¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 63¢ $6 43h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 64¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? SELL No 76¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 72¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 43h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 43h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $8 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $25 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 64¢ $31 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $32 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,205.64 · official $1,205.64 (match) · 3500 history records