Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x22a4…63eb sports 759 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,999 (+4%) realized +$4,027 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%364W / 611L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$1,694est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$848
other 2% +$25
world 0% −$16
crypto 0% +$172
politics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 447 -47.6% -52.6% 26% 25% -53.6%
≤30d 587 -37.0% -43.0% 29% 27% -31.6%
≤90d 975 -24.6% -31.8% 37% 35% -17.3%
all 975 -24.6% -31.8% 37% 35% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 35% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 34% -25.2%
15% -44.3% 32% -32.4%
20% -49.7% 28% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$89 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$4,027
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses364 / 611
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,694
Open positions16
Markets (closed)975 / 759
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$145
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 975 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $91 $88 −$3 (-4%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $64 $37 −$26 (-41%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 44¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 63¢ 56¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 60¢ $1 $12 +$10 (+713%)
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 52¢ 42¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ball State Cardinals vs. Northern Illinois Huskies: O/U 132.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $0 −$5 -1403%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Rhode Island Rams vs. Fordham Rams: O/U 132.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 138.5 Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 134.5 Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5 Jun 15 $211 −$218 -103%
Al Horford: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Wright State Raiders Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Josh Hart: Points O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-10.5) Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Mercer Bears: O/U 153.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-8.5) Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Jun 15 $0 +$11 +3325%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Youngstown State Penguins vs. Robert Morris Colonials: O/U 141.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
DeMar DeRozan: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Toledo Rockets (-8.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
James Harden: Points O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-2.5) Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Trae Young: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: California Golden Bears (-6.5) Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Egor Demin: Points O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Caris LeVert: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 20m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 63¢ $18 31m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 59¢ $17 31m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 56¢ $3 32m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 56¢ $3 33m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $23 38m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $28 55m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $14 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 53¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 55¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 55¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.87 · official $243.76 (match) · 3500 history records