Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22a5…fb79 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-12%) realized −$176 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$14
14 days−$124
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$55
sports 13% −$84
crypto 5% −$50
world 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.7% -36.4% 33% 33% -5.5%
≤30d 21 -31.0% -37.5% 38% 33% -25.9%
≤90d 21 -31.0% -37.5% 38% 33% -25.9%
all 21 -31.0% -37.5% 38% 33% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 33% -25.9%
10% -43.5% 33% -33.0%
15% -49.0% 24% -39.5%
20% -54.0% 14% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$27 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage16d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 81¢ $0 $48 +$48 (+0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $51 +$134 +262%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$8 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $221 −$84 -38%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $39 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $137 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $221 7d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 87¢ $36 9d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 86¢ $36 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 12d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 16d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 16d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 16d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 59¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.59 · official $245.98 (match) · 43 history records