Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
22 0x22a9…97ba sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$471 (-12%) realized −$515 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$442
14 days−$321
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$79
other 28% −$61
sports 25% −$130
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 36% -25.7%
≤30d 28 +7.5% -2.7% 43% 43% -18.9%
≤90d 32 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 41% -18.7%
all 32 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 41% -18.7%
10% -18.9% 34% -26.5%
15% -26.7% 34% -33.6%
20% -33.9% 31% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$67 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized−$515
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage63d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 65¢ 74¢ $317 $364 +$47 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $96 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $465 +$100 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $92 +$156 +170%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$62 +62%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $100 −$70 -70%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $160 −$49 -30%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$61 -60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$57 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +504%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $237 −$219 -92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $98 +$81 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$19 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $202 −$201 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $67 +$70 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $116 +$51 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $187 +$28 +15%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $163 −$160 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 02 $225 +$140 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 13¢ $56 54m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $95 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $200 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $117 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $405 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $96 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 7¢ $21 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $250 17h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $92 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $160 33h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $54 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $215 35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 36h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 36h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-1 BUY 7¢ $25 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 3d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $111 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $40 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Under 45¢ $49 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $44 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.54 · official $655.96 · 67 history records