Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

22 0x22ab…ace9 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$53 (+6%) realized +$74 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day9.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-35.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-29.0%	-35.7%	40%	40%	+0.0%
≤30d	5	-29.0%	-35.7%	40%	40%	+0.0%
≤90d	5	-29.0%	-35.7%	40%	40%	+0.0%
all	5	-29.0%	-35.7%	40%	40%	+0.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.7%	40%	+0.0%
10%	-41.9%	40%	-9.5%
15%	-47.5%	40%	-18.3%
20%	-52.7%	20%	-26.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$126 vs −$66 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$351

Realized+$74

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions5

Markets (closed)5 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day9.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Over	55¢	52¢	$200	$191	−$9 (-5%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	48¢	$70	$69	−$1 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$70	$69	−$1 (-2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Yes	56¢	40¢	$27	$19	−$7 (-28%)
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$181	+$191	+105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$121	+$61	+50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$90	−$88	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$92	−$90	-98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	56¢	$27	56m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$203	1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$71	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$72	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$181	16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$39	21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	18¢	$41	21h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots	BUY No	69¢	$20	21h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$121	31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.20 · official $351.20 (match) · 14 history records