Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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22 0x22ae…af00 sports 546 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,519 (-4%) realized −$5,476 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%292W / 247L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$873
14 days−$788
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$3,184
other 24% −$2,489
world 5% −$1,451
finance 5% +$117
crypto 4% −$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.4% -18.0% 41% 41% -41.3%
≤30d 157 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 52% -12.6%
≤90d 278 +4.8% -5.2% 56% 52% -14.4%
all 539 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 50% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% -14.3%
10% -17.0% 47% -22.5%
15% -25.0% 41% -30.0%
20% -32.3% 32% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$198 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized−$5,476
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses292 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions7
Markets (closed)539 / 546
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$253
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $168 $138 −$30 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $105 $92 −$13 (-12%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $59 $74 +$16 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $19 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $16 $21 +$4 (+26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $66 +$34 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$50 +101%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $56 −$3 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $85 +$12 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $176 −$176 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $114 −$84 -73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $256 +$144 +56%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $388 −$383 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $129 +$287 +223%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $106 +$74 +70%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $728 −$617 -85%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $41 +$76 +185%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $69 +$31 +45%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $74 +$26 +35%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $29 +$31 +108%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $161 +$189 +117%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$10 -42%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$70 +238%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $61 −$11 -18%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$69 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$29 -56%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $128 +$72 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$61 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$28 +56%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $66 +$34 +52%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $129 +$71 +55%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$8 -36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $125 +$37 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $305 +$195 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 33m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $50 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $53 41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $97 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $82 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 47¢ $94 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $7 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $20 5d
Ecuador leading at halftime? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 6d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $111 6d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $148 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $157 6d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $117 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.04 · official $378.04 (match) · 3500 history records