Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22af…3d6a other 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$563 (-10%) realized −$554 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%40W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$212
14 days+$212
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$396
sports 31% +$112
world 10% −$42
weather 3% −$116
crypto 2% +$17
politics 2% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +4.2% -5.7% 39% 39% +16.7%
≤30d 109 -28.1% -35.0% 26% 26% -23.3%
≤90d 180 -37.2% -43.1% 21% 21% -23.1%
all 188 -33.7% -40.0% 21% 21% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 21% -17.0%
10% -45.7% 20% -24.9%
15% -51.0% 20% -32.2%
20% -55.8% 19% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$19 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$554
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses40 / 148
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)188 / 193
History coverage128d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+156%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $129 +$125 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$25 +494%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$45 +442%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +196%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $63 +$9 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$22 -45%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 +$6 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +170%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -66%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$26 +213%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$25 +163%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$25 +203%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $106 +$78 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 +$52 +68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$15 -32%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +83%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$56 -68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $73 +$77 +105%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 −$44 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 17m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $254 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $129 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 21¢ $15 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $6 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 19h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 26h
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $5 26h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.38 · official $10.81 (match) · 468 history records