Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x22b0…1825 sports 10 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-17%) realized −$60 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$229
other 33% −$59
tech 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+57.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +73.5% +57.0% 60% 60% +77.0%
≤30d 5 +73.5% +57.0% 60% 60% +77.0%
≤90d 5 +73.5% +57.0% 60% 60% +77.0%
all 5 +73.5% +57.0% 60% 60% +77.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.0% 60% +77.0%
10% +42.0% 60% +60.0%
15% +28.3% 60% +44.6%
20% +15.7% 60% +30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$30 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Belgi Jun 27 $18 +$30 +166%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 +$71 +143%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND W Jun 26 $50 +$129 +258%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.15 · official $211.60 · 14 history records