Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22b3…dcaf other 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-2%) realized −$101 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%51W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$83
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$72
sports 32% +$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 50% +2.2%
≤30d 20 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 40% -10.1%
≤90d 46 -10.0% -18.6% 39% 39% -16.5%
all 126 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 39% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 39% -10.8%
10% -24.7% 36% -19.3%
15% -32.0% 33% -27.1%
20% -38.6% 24% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses51 / 75
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage164d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 70¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $256 +$61 +24%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $131 −$34 -26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $112 +$51 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $61 +$51 +82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$17 +107%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $27 −$12 -45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 +$18 +220%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $16 −$7 -44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $86 −$70 -82%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $92 −$8 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $7 −$5 -71%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $29 −$24 -83%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $63 −$40 -62%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $11 +$18 +158%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $26 +$19 +74%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$11 +243%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $15 −$7 -45%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $135 −$105 -78%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $74 +$62 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $30 +$45 +152%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $14 −$10 -70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-26? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Brazil vs. France: O/U 2.5 Mar 26 $3 $0 -12%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $9 −$7 -71%
Moldova vs. Lithuania: O/U 1.5 Mar 26 $14 −$5 -33%
Will Fortaleza CEIF win on 2026-03-24? Mar 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-03-23? Mar 25 $6 +$3 +44%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-23? Mar 23 $14 +$8 +56%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-03-23? Mar 23 $44 −$30 -68%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $133 −$89 -67%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $79 +$55 +69%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $40 +$40 +100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $49 −$9 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $191 26m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $186 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $93 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 47¢ $98 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 61¢ $131 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 70¢ $131 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $163 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $163 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $112 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $112 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $23 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $25 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $15 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $15 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $27 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $8 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $9 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $16 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 7¢ $16 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $86 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $84 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $92 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.32 · official $187.32 (match) · 318 history records