Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22b6…aad1 crypto 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$224 (-5%) realized −$224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate84%274W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$205
14 days−$266
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +17.4% +6.2% 48% 48% -16.1%
≤30d 327 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 45% -14.6%
≤90d 327 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 45% -14.6%
all 327 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 45% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 45% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 11% -22.7%
15% -24.8% 6% -30.2%
20% -32.2% 6% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$34 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses274 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)327 / 327
History coverage18d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 327 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$67 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$41 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $47 +$56 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $155 +$121 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $234 +$196 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $149 −$121 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$73 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$78 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $129 +$76 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$82 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $181 −$175 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$137 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $120 +$148 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $177 −$90 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$60 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $77 +$43 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $76 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$35 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$17 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $155 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $155 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $198 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $28 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $149 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $103 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $208 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $124 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.67 · official $116.67 (match) · 642 history records