Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22b7…0eda politics 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-5%) realized −$120 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%21W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$353
7 days−$378
14 days−$385
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$225
politics 31% −$31
world 14% +$147
culture 2% −$6
weather 2% −$30
crypto 2% −$28
tech 1% −$3
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -93.5% -94.2% 0% 0% -83.4%
≤30d 5 -39.5% -45.2% 20% 20% -73.3%
≤90d 14 -33.0% -39.3% 7% 7% -66.5%
all 97 -13.4% -21.6% 22% 20% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 20% -20.1%
10% -29.1% 20% -27.7%
15% -36.0% 19% -34.7%
20% -42.3% 15% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses21 / 76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage183d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $13 $29 +$16 (+127%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $438 −$353 -81%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$7 -21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $10 −$2 -17%
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Apr 02 $86 −$48 -56%
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 29 $7 −$3 -45%
Will Bright Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Mar 29 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 28 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 26 $100 +$99 +99%
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Georges Képénékian win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 23 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 23 $6 −$4 -69%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 22 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Paul Coca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 20 $5 −$2 -40%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $32 −$20 -64%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026? Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Mar 19 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $31 −$16 -52%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $30 −$17 -56%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 13? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $20 +$7 +37%
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? Mar 19 $12 +$17 +142%
Will Aline Campos win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sarah Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matheus Moreira win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paulo Augusto Carvalhaes win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brigido Neto win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Marcelo Alves win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will I Have Honor Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nat Mar 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will Juliette Chesnel-Leroux win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 14 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Mar 14 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Kweon Seong-dong win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elec Mar 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Félix Oros win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election? Mar 13 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Hanrapetutyun Party win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Natio Mar 13 $0 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $85 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 10d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $27 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $41 16d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 50d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 52d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 73d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 73d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 73d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 77d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 77d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 77d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $38 84d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 86d
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 89d
Will Bright Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 1¢ $3 89d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 90d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 91d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 91d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 39¢ $199 91d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia SELL Yes 79¢ $38 95d
Will Paul Coca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 97d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 52¢ $25 98d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $27 98d
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.75 · official $49.75 (match) · 440 history records