Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

22 0x22bb…9191 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$76 (+16%) realized −$3 · open +$79

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$15

7 days−$3

14 days+$40

30 days+$40

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-21.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+1.2%	-8.5%	50%	50%	-13.1%
≤30d	3	+15.2%	+4.2%	67%	67%	+9.9%
≤90d	3	+15.2%	+4.2%	67%	67%	+9.9%
all	4	-13.6%	-21.8%	50%	50%	-13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.8%	50%	-13.4%
10%	-29.3%	50%	-21.7%
15%	-36.2%	25%	-29.3%
20%	-42.4%	0%	-36.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$32 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.84 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage

Net worth$329

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$79

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage128d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	21¢	$150	$261	+$111 (+74%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$50	$34	−$16 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	11¢	$50	$34	−$16 (-32%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$50	−$15	-30%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$36	+$12	+32%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$100	+$43	+43%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 20	$50	−$50	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$35	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$48	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	17¢	$143	13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$36	18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$50	128d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$50	128d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$150	128d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$50	128d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$100	128d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.78 · official $328.78 (match) · 138 history records