Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x22bc…b66f sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$709 (-25%) realized −$708 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$214
14 days+$154
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$829
crypto 25% +$31
other 9% +$81
finance 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +160.1% +135.3% 100% 100% +114.5%
≤30d 6 +34.8% +22.0% 67% 50% -30.8%
≤90d 11 +74.1% +57.5% 82% 36% -2.2%
all 13 +55.1% +40.3% 77% 31% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.3% 31% -33.7%
10% +26.9% 31% -40.0%
15% +14.6% 31% -45.8%
20% +3.4% 31% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +115% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$494 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$708
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage102d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 78¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $117 +$133 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $39 +$81 +206%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $109 +$91 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $481 −$476 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 05 $377 +$23 +6%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $72 +$428 +596%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 02 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 04 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $855 −$855 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 22 $109 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $183 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $117 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $39 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $109 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $481 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 94¢ $377 39d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 14¢ $72 54d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 77d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $34 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $91 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 84d
Thunder vs. Celtics BUY Thunder 57¢ $855 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $99 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.55 · official $180.55 (match) · 26 history records