Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x22be…ba43 weather 1025 markets active 12h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$904 (-2%) realized −$905 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%959W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day67.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$121
14 days−$74
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$458
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 2% -13.0%
≤30d 474 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 1% -10.3%
≤90d 1024 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 2% -10.5%
all 1024 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 2% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$905
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses959 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1024 / 1025
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day67.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $79 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $107 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $22 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.96 · official $74.96 (match) · 3500 history records