Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22c0…17a0 politics 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$9
other 27% +$218
sports 15% −$5
economics 6% −$117
crypto 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 91 -9.6% -18.2% 9% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 1% -8.7%
10% -26.0% 1% -17.4%
15% -33.2% 1% -25.4%
20% -39.7% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$2 · ×15.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage364d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $92 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $212 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $94 $0 -0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $95 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $113 −$1 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 -20%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $309 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $211 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $89 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $89 27d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 32d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 44d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 112d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 113d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 113d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 115d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 117d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 117d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 117d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? BUY No 0¢ $1 123d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 123d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $88 123d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $89 126d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 128d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 128d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 130d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 130d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 132d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 132d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 132d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.32 · official $90.32 (match) · 450 history records