Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x22c6…2c62 crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$203 (-8%) realized −$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%53W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day122.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$201
sports 8% −$73
other 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 39% -19.8%
≤30d 127 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 39% -19.8%
≤90d 127 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 39% -19.8%
all 127 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 39% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 35% -27.4%
15% -29.4% 28% -34.5%
20% -36.3% 24% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses53 / 74
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day122.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 85¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$18 -86%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$10 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$4 -18%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$10 +23%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $11 +$16 +150%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +156%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$5 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$9 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$7 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -75%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$26 -71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $41 −$3 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$17 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$19 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $70 −$5 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$10 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$5 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$3 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$24 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$16 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$7 -79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$18 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$19 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$9 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$9 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$23 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $23 10h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $30 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $9 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 23h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $44 25h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? SELL No 45¢ $27 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $13 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 30h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 18¢ $11 31h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 60¢ $12 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 15¢ $6 2d
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 5¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 26¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.80 · official $37.80 (match) · 725 history records