trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | +8.6% | -1.7% | 38% | 38% | -6.2% |
| ≤30d | 28 | +20.4% | +9.0% | 46% | 46% | +3.0% |
| ≤90d | 33 | +12.3% | +1.6% | 39% | 39% | +1.0% |
| all | 41 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 41% | 34% | +0.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.1% | 34% | +0.5% |
| 10% | -10.5% | 32% | -9.1% |
| 15% | -19.2% | 29% | -17.9% |
| 20% | -27.1% | 20% | -25.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 44¢ | 16¢ | $70 | $25 | −$45 (-65%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 21 | $521 | +$242 | +46% |
| Spread: Japan (-1.5) | Jun 21 | $128 | −$16 | -13% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $303 | −$23 | -8% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $203 | +$222 | +109% |
| Spread: Brazil (-2.5) | Jun 20 | $472 | +$334 | +71% |
| Spread: Morocco (-1.5) | Jun 19 | $204 | −$31 | -15% |
| Spread: United States (-1.5) | Jun 19 | $341 | −$337 | -99% |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $82 | −$49 | -60% |
| Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $745 | +$210 | +28% |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $215 | +$443 | +206% |
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $146 | +$69 | +47% |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $744 | −$398 | -54% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $509 | −$296 | -58% |
| Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $305 | −$18 | -6% |
| Spread: Belgium (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $294 | −$11 | -4% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 15 | $259 | −$138 | -54% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $110 | +$50 | +46% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $255 | +$345 | +135% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $278 | −$234 | -84% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $508 | +$512 | +101% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $204 | −$14 | -7% |
| Spread: Scotland (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $494 | −$28 | -6% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $234 | +$300 | +128% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2,419 | −$245 | -10% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $354 | +$44 | +12% |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $7 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $995 | +$462 | +46% |
| Spread: United States (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $264 | +$208 | +79% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 13 | $253 | −$20 | -8% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 13 | $380 | −$19 | -5% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 13 | $653 | −$44 | -7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET | Mar 31 | $33 | −$15 | -45% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | Mar 31 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET | Feb 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET | Feb 14 | $1 | +$1 | +70% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Nov 22 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? | Nov 13 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Nov 07 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? | Oct 23 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 09 | $445 | +$9 | +2% |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | May 18 | $28 | $0 | -0% |