Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
22 0x22ce…7f27 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$291 (-2%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%42W / 48L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 29% +$434
crypto 28% −$614
other 21% +$518
politics 11% −$714
world 7% +$78
tech 4% −$384
sports 0% −$19
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 67% +5.0%
≤30d 8 +8.1% -2.2% 62% 38% -27.2%
≤90d 87 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 28% -12.2%
all 90 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 27% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 27% -13.6%
10% -28.9% 16% -21.9%
15% -35.8% 8% -29.4%
20% -42.1% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$49 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage234d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $161 +$37 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $30 −$19 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $142 +$35 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 20? May 20 $101 −$88 -88%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 20? May 20 $246 −$157 -64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 20 $162 +$13 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 20 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 20 $5 +$11 +214%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 19 $503 −$503 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 19 $202 −$18 -9%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 19 $301 +$22 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $229 +$36 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 19 $331 +$17 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $280 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 19 $153 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 19 $201 −$22 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 19 $76 −$23 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 19 $76 −$16 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 19 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 19 $77 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 19 $127 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 19 $63 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 19 $126 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 19 $311 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 19 $128 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 19 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 19 $204 −$37 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $96 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 19 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 19 $31 +$9 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 19 $57 +$2 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $36 +$3 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 19 $862 −$242 -28%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 19 $412 −$386 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $1,864 +$358 +19%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$61 +595%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $35 −$35 -98%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $21 −$12 -58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $845 +$57 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-01? Apr 24 $50 −$27 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $873 +$137 +16%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? Apr 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 53m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 18¢ $11 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $30 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $142 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 20? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 29d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 20? SELL No 26¢ $89 29d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 20? BUY No 63¢ $128 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL No 69¢ $176 29d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 20? BUY No 63¢ $17 29d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 29d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 29d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 29d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 29d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 62¢ $162 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $503 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $99 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $84 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $112 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $154 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records