Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22cf…a9de sports 33 markets active 12h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$618 (-56%) realized −$618 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$593
other 3% −$24
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -59.2% -63.1% 21% 21% -60.3%
≤30d 33 -59.2% -63.1% 21% 21% -60.3%
≤90d 33 -59.2% -63.1% 21% 21% -60.3%
all 33 -59.2% -63.1% 21% 21% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.1% 21% -60.3%
10% -66.6% 18% -64.1%
15% -69.9% 18% -67.6%
20% -72.8% 15% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $604 −$600 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $301 +$48 +16%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $5 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $5 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $604 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 3d
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $301 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $50 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $1 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records