Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:23:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
22 0x22d6…f8b3 world 262 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$59 (+1%) realized +$207 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%163W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$189
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$48
other 10% +$24
sports 4% +$79
politics 4% +$7
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$36
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$7
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 47 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 53% -10.8%
≤90d 156 +32.8% +20.2% 66% 54% -0.1%
all 245 +20.0% +8.5% 67% 44% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 44% -7.7%
10% -1.8% 25% -16.5%
15% -11.3% 18% -24.6%
20% -20.0% 13% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses163 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)245 / 262
History coverage115d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $66 $67 +$2 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 73¢ 68¢ $58 $54 −$4 (-7%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 31¢ 29¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? No 55¢ 58¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 46¢ $46 $32 −$14 (-30%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 78¢ 77¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-77%)
Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 70¢ 2¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 53¢ 2¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-96%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $120 −$40 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $132 −$77 -58%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $193 +$10 +5%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $110 +$8 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 14 $69 +$5 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $81 −$12 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $106 +$28 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $50 +$8 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $61 +$13 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $39 −$4 -11%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$3 -27%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 +$35 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $38 +$18 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$30 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $48 +$7 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $70 +$29 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $47 +$11 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $50 +$32 +65%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 04 $32 +$14 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $50 +$38 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $71 +$23 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $100 −$14 -14%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 01 $20 +$25 +127%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $21 $0 -1%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? May 29 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $50 +$8 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $50 +$28 +56%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $10 +$20 +203%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $10 +$24 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $52 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $53 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $58 1h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $45 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $31 11h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $58 2d
Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $12 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $17 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $55 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $8 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $46 10d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 11d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $11 11d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $1 11d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 11d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $13 11d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.81 · official $499.81 (match) · 1013 history records