Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22d8…b421 sports 429 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$308 (-1%) realized −$306 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%313W / 114L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$157
14 days−$244
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$324
other 4% −$93
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 33% -34.8%
≤30d 138 -2.0% -11.3% 79% 12% -12.9%
≤90d 427 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 20% -10.8%
all 427 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 20% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 20% -10.8%
10% -19.0% 10% -19.3%
15% -26.8% 7% -27.1%
20% -34.0% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$306
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses313 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions2
Markets (closed)427 / 429
History coverage68d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 84¢ 30¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 -2%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $10 +$7 +64%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 −$2 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $70 +$1 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $68 +$3 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $46 +$4 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $100 −$64 -64%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $88 +$7 +8%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $35 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$19 -19%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $94 −$3 -3%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Ilkley: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Vendula Valdmannova Jun 09 $100 +$10 +10%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $55 +$2 +3%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 08 $65 −$8 -12%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$2 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $41 +$7 +16%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $91 −$38 -42%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $100 −$13 -13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL KOLESIE 35¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 84¢ $10 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $17 4h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 60¢ $10 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $10 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 6d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $61 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $59 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $60 7d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $70 7d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 8d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $68 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $50 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $46 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $45 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.74 · official $30.74 (match) · 1000 history records