Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
22 0x22d8…2bb2 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$135
14 days+$32
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$14
sports 14% +$1
crypto 5% −$13
world 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.1% -18.7% 53% 42% -20.9%
≤30d 45 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 45 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 33% -10.3%
all 55 -17.5% -25.4% 47% 31% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 31% -10.6%
10% -32.5% 31% -19.2%
15% -39.0% 25% -27.0%
20% -45.0% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage142d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 +$11 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 +$12 +41%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 −$12 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$28 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$13 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$11 -30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $175 −$34 -19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $60 −$25 -41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 +$31 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $225 +$14 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $163 +$63 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $196 −$2 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $85 +$82 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $94 +$24 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 03 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Madagascar? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Madagascar? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$8 +109%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $4 $0 -2%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $2 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL 21¢ $14 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 55¢ $13 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 35¢ $13 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 55¢ $30 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY 37¢ $25 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $76 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $76 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $34 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $36 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $141 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $142 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $175 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.71 · official $39.71 (match) · 123 history records