Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x22db…8dad world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-2%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
sports 35% −$53
other 14% $0
politics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 -21.0% -28.5% 20% 0% -18.6%
≤90d 12 -8.2% -16.9% 42% 0% -10.9%
all 12 -8.2% -16.9% 42% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -10.9%
10% -24.9% 0% -19.5%
15% -32.1% 0% -27.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage83d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 18 $226 +$3 +2%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $228 −$1 -0%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) May 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $59 −$4 -6%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) May 11 $480 +$10 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 09 $477 $0 +0%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 08 $476 +$14 +3%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 07 $481 $0 +0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $381 $0 -0%
Spread: Slovenia (-2.5) Mar 29 $201 +$4 +2%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $201 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $238 44m
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $238 2h
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $229 25h
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $226 27h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $228 46h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $228 2d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY Rosenborg BK $40 21d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY Rosenborg BK $42 21d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL Yes $28 21d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL Yes $28 21d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY Yes $30 21d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY Yes $29 21d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Sevilla FC 98¢ $480 41d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $477 41d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $477 41d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Ghazl El Mahalla SC 97¢ $476 43d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 43d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $462 43d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $481 43d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $380 60d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $381 60d
Spread: Slovenia (-2.5) BUY Hungary 98¢ $201 82d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 94¢ $201 83d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 93¢ $201 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records