Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
22 0x22db…190f world 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$84,884 (+56%) realized +$81,849 · open +$3,035
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%168W / 68L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$538per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$22,655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$12,195
politics 26% +$376
other 21% +$4,923
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% +$203
tech 0% +$95
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% +$15
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -21.2% -28.7% 57% 20% -13.0%
≤30d 115 +38.6% +25.4% 66% 34% +0.4%
≤90d 236 +38.7% +25.5% 71% 37% +1.5%
all 236 +38.7% +25.5% 71% 37% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.5% 37% +1.5%
10% +13.5% 28% -8.2%
15% ← realistic here +2.5% 23% -17.1%
20% -7.5% 16% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$216 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$22,655
Realized+$81,849
Unrealized+$3,035
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses168 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions55
Markets (closed)236 / 283
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$538
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 98¢ $2,792 $3,832 +$1,039 (+37%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 80¢ $3,317 $3,736 +$420 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 82¢ 92¢ $1,062 $1,203 +$141 (+13%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 24¢ 57¢ $477 $1,141 +$664 (+139%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 46¢ 70¢ $734 $1,135 +$402 (+55%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $742 $900 +$158 (+21%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? No 96¢ 99¢ $822 $843 +$21 (+3%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 29¢ 97¢ $215 $728 +$513 (+238%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 37¢ 84¢ $289 $647 +$357 (+123%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $523 $609 +$85 (+16%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $544 $599 +$55 (+10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $514 $536 +$22 (+4%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 65¢ 76¢ $420 $497 +$77 (+18%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $382 $410 +$29 (+8%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $369 $400 +$31 (+8%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $343 $390 +$47 (+14%)
Will Trump say "Satan" in June? No 85¢ 97¢ $331 $376 +$45 (+14%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $238 $342 +$104 (+44%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $301 $338 +$37 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $292 $295 +$3 (+1%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 28¢ 72¢ $113 $286 +$173 (+152%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 80¢ 98¢ $189 $231 +$41 (+22%)
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $217 $226 +$8 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Yes 58¢ 79¢ $164 $221 +$58 (+35%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 58¢ 97¢ $124 $210 +$86 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 27 $134 −$134 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $48 +$2 +5%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 27 $326 −$219 -67%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 27 $2,401 −$1,417 -59%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- Jun 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Jun 25 $68 +$30 +45%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 25 $1,592 +$8 +0%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $30 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $145 −$67 -46%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 23 $51 −$35 -70%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $75 −$15 -20%
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? Jun 23 $248 −$246 -99%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $325 +$75 +23%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $360 +$139 +38%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $4,461 +$1,173 +26%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $798 +$2 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $294 +$6 +2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $606 −$391 -64%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $3,305 +$7 +0%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 21 $365 +$34 +9%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $453 +$654 +144%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $754 +$366 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $967 −$60 -6%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -96%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2,184 −$1,139 -52%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 20 $16 +$281 +1804%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $297 −$70 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2,068 +$102 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $493 +$7 +1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $210 +$70 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $7,983 +$5,525 +69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $1,830 −$997 -54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $214 +$2,204 +1028%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $67 +$61 +92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,830 −$1,490 -81%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $242 +$58 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $428 −$255 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $181 −$125 -69%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 12 $48 −$34 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $705 −$213 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $138 −$44 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $716 −$595 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $191 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $145 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $83 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $52 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $6 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 22¢ $29 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $0 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $0 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $2 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $2 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $0 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $2 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $0 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $0 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 72¢ $65 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $20 5h
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,655.22 · official $22,655.33 (match) · 3500 history records