Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22df…fb6a other 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 115L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$71
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$17
politics 26% −$18
sports 21% −$64
crypto 8% +$2
world 6% −$1
culture 4% −$2
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 66 -2.0% -11.3% 9% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 110 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 0% -10.1%
all 130 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage106d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 15 $98 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $42 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $98 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $42 −$4 -10%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $111 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $644 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $215 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $64 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $645 −$1 -0%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 03 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $593 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $212 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $465 −$3 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $49 14m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 6h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $38 6h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $38 10h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 11h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 17h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $5 18h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 25h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $51 25h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $51 33h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $23 34h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $23 41h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 96¢ $55 42h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $34 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $13 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $8 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $13 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $58 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $58 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 538 history records