Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x22e4…ef1c
world · 97 markets active 8h ago
0.0score
+$342,594 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$167,142 · open +$17,047
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$359,634
Realized+$167,142
Unrealized+$17,047
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses59 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions48
Markets (closed)80 / 97
History coverage70d
Avg bet$20,132
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 48 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,810
7 days+$37,359
14 days+$54,091
30 days+$64,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 78¢ $164,950 $162,832 −$2,118 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 44¢ 72¢ $42,448 $69,446 +$26,998 (+64%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $44,390 $44,752 +$363 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $21,052 $21,532 +$480 (+2%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $17,044 $17,106 +$62 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $9,122 $9,880 +$758 (+8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $8,600 $8,950 +$350 (+4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 90¢ $6,442 $6,783 +$341 (+5%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 71¢ 72¢ $3,550 $3,625 +$75 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $3,500 $3,075 −$425 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 50¢ $2,764 $2,005 −$759 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 71¢ 44¢ $3,100 $1,903 −$1,197 (-39%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 76¢ $2,100 $1,894 −$206 (-10%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ $2,002 $1,362 −$640 (-32%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? No 92¢ 98¢ $925 $983 +$58 (+6%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $393 $779 +$386 (+98%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $1,064 $554 −$510 (-48%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 24¢ 46¢ $287 $534 +$247 (+86%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 86¢ $413 $466 +$53 (+13%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ $978 $225 −$753 (-77%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $362 $202 −$160 (-44%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 16¢ $56 $172 +$116 (+206%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes $112 $150 +$37 (+33%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? No 66¢ 88¢ $83 $110 +$27 (+33%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 10¢ $52 $97 +$46 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $710 +$290 +41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $830 +$170 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,650 +$1,350 +82%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $50,966 +$1,033 +2%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $18,467 +$4,481 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $142,334 +$20,420 +14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $52,643 +$4,700 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $251 +$22 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,596 +$63 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $195 +$12 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $165 +$4 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,037 +$144 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7,481 +$1,594 +21%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $45,672 +$10,641 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13,039 −$1,629 -12%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $6,544 −$5,939 -91%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $143,826 +$1,174 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $83,297 +$928 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5,551 +$2,035 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50,021 +$11,800 +24%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $1,862 +$138 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $457 +$43 +9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $231 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2,523 +$29 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3,833 +$583 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $4,980 +$20 +0%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? May 28 $930 +$70 +8%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 May 28 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 May 28 $39 −$17 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $18,807 −$17,283 -92%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $11,198 +$288 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $83,786 +$15,182 +18%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $19,800 +$200 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $3,200 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 24 $1,908 −$1,908 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 24 $1,110 −$260 -23%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 22 $199 −$157 -79%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 20 $67,089 +$14,107 +21%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $46,320 +$8,680 +19%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $67,150 +$22,850 +34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $182 +$60 +33%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $1,710 −$82 -5%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $63,216 +$852 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $91,604 +$6,427 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$101,901
politics 34% +$91,958
other 11% −$16,138
crypto 7% +$1,175
tech 3% +$4,919
economics 2% +$363
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 8h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 71¢ $3,550 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $66 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $65 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $65 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $179 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $74 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $23 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $65 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $37 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $453 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $576 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $363 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $31 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $4 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $14 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $27 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.5% +0.9% 89% 47% +0.3%
≤30d 44 -1.9% -11.3% 80% 32% -2.6%
≤90d 80 +7.9% -2.4% 74% 35% +0.4%
all 80 +7.9% -2.4% 74% 35% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 35% +0.4%
10% -11.7% 16% -9.2%
15% ← realistic here -20.3% 10% -17.9%
20% -28.1% 5% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359,634.07 · official $359,667.72 (match) · 3500 history records