Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22e7…bfac sports 185 markets active 4h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$51 (-3%) realized −$69 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%62W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$76
14 days−$159
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$72
sports 44% −$75
crypto 6% −$57
world 2% +$13
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +8.2% -2.1% 45% 45% -20.8%
≤30d 149 +19.6% +8.2% 37% 37% -20.4%
≤90d 166 +15.1% +4.1% 37% 37% -21.4%
all 166 +15.1% +4.1% 37% 37% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 37% -21.4%
10% -5.8% 36% -28.9%
15% -14.9% 32% -35.8%
20% -23.3% 27% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses62 / 104
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions19
Markets (closed)166 / 185
History coverage52d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 88¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 46¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+42%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 90¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+54%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+72%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 74¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+153%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-27%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Over 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +157%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 +$7 +363%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$7 +171%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +45%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 +$22 +289%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $11 +$25 +225%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 +$9 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$19 +236%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$24 +471%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $12 +$9 +75%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +55%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +138%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$31 +600%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $9 +$4 +43%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +164%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$3 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $12 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 4h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $8 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $5 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $13 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $4 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $4 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3 19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $69 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $15 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.45 · official $174.88 (match) · 374 history records