Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22e9…15fc world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$108 (-4%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$11
world 22% −$6
politics 19% −$66
sports 14% −$3
economics 9% −$2
weather 2% −$20
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.5% -12.7% 18% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 20 -3.2% -12.4% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 32 -2.8% -12.1% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 46 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 2% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 2% -13.4%
10% -23.2% 2% -21.7%
15% -30.6% 2% -29.3%
20% -37.4% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage535d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $59 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $71 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $12 −$3 -25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $13 $0 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $119 −$10 -9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $36 −$6 -16%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $250 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $228 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $228 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $230 −$2 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Cal Poly vs. UC Santa Barbara Mar 21 $6 +$3 +39%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Abilene Christian vs. Tarleton Feb 26 $6 $0 +0%
St. John's vs. Butler Feb 26 $6 +$1 +10%
Queens vs. North Alabama Feb 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 24? Feb 24 $40 −$20 -50%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 44m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 44m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $29 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $29 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $10 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $22 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $33 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 46h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $12 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $26 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $34 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records