trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $1,194 | $0 | −$1,194 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 17? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $52 | $0 | −$52 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $154 | $0 | −$154 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $41 | $0 | −$41 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | Up | 58¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $26 | −$26 | -99% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $17 | +$10 | +61% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $12 | +$4 | +33% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $9 | +$3 | +27% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? | Jun 10 | $8 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? | Jun 05 | $79 | −$71 | -90% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? | Jun 04 | $607 | −$516 | -85% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? | Jun 03 | $210 | +$8 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21? | May 21 | $42 | −$41 | -99% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? | May 18 | $36 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17? | May 17 | $220 | −$157 | -72% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17? | May 17 | $159 | −$154 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 17? | May 16 | $55 | −$52 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 18? | May 16 | $6 | −$1 | -19% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? | May 16 | $1,239 | −$1,194 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15? | May 15 | $125 | +$343 | +273% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15? | May 15 | $46 | +$14 | +31% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 14? | May 14 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | May 13 | $8 | −$8 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET | May 13 | $3 | +$4 | +128% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET | May 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +7.8% | -2.5% | 80% | 80% | -19.5% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -23.8% | -31.0% | 44% | 33% | -62.8% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -22.4% | -29.8% | 45% | 32% | -62.8% |
| all | 22 | -22.4% | -29.8% | 45% | 32% | -62.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.8% | 32% | -62.8% |
| 10% | -36.5% | 27% | -66.3% |
| 15% | -42.6% | 14% | -69.6% |
| 20% | -48.3% | 14% | -72.6% |