Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ea…f63d sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized +$61 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$61
other 20% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 19% -15.1%
≤30d 21 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 19% -15.1%
≤90d 21 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 19% -15.1%
all 21 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 19% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 19% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 10% -23.3%
15% -36.6% 0% -30.7%
20% -42.8% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 72¢ 36¢ $83 $42 −$41 (-49%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Over 43¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $18 −$2 -9%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $27 −$4 -14%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $122 +$5 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -90%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$4 +12%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $13 −$4 -31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $6 +$1 +23%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $41 +$2 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $7 $0 +1%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$3 +9%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 −$10 -69%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $4 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 28m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 36m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 58m
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 2h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $23 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 100¢ $96 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 94¢ $92 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 87¢ $31 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $22 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 3h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 84¢ $30 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 89¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $30 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $14 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $11 4h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 24¢ $9 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 4h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 33¢ $13 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.04 · official $64.04 (match) · 65 history records