Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ea…3095 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,157 (-1%) realized −$1,162 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%26W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,218per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$21
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$77
other 42% −$263
sports 12% −$834
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$2
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -13.9% -22.1% 8% 1% -11.2%
all 122 +2.5% -7.3% 21% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 12% -10.2%
10% -16.2% 12% -18.8%
15% -24.3% 11% -26.7%
20% -31.7% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,486) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$24 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$653
Realized−$1,162
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,218
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $647 $653 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $521 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,825 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,030 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $5,721 −$7 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,896 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,886 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $322 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 03 $658 +$2 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,667 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $3,000 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,981 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,780 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $724 +$1 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,967 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,452 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,418 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $2,437 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,414 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,398 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $5,698 −$6 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,151 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $7,780 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $520 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $521 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $486 46h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $487 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $548 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $548 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $272 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $376 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,547 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,550 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,251 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,252 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,483 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,485 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,422 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,423 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,336 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,338 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,159 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $807 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $808 16d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $888 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $890 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,366 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,367 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.58 · official $652.58 (match) · 441 history records